Lines of Integration
The first big challenge to the PNCERS program is to establish useful lines of integration among its component studies. One successful effort was the use of impact analyses using Valued Ecosystem Components (VECs) as currencies in conceptual models: Dungeness crab, salmon, oyster culture and tourism were all found to be useful currencies. A second line of integration has been along the lines of ocean forcing (natural) versus habitat modification (anthropogenic) within the estuaries. The research team is presently initiating an integrative effort using appropriate stressor and effects indicators.

Outreach
The other big challenge to the program is to make the science relevant and available to managers. Since 1998, PNCERS has conducted dialogues in the form of annual thematic workshops with coastal managers, focused on the use of scientific information in coastal management decisions and effective delivery systems. One useful form of scientific information is metadata - the program has developed coastal metadata and recently published it in searchable form on the Web. Next steps will be to identify audiences, messages and media for an extensive outreach program to export the information gained through the research program.

More about the PNCERS program can be found at http://www.pncers.org.

Research Highlights following PNCERS' Third Field Season

Coastal Estuary Coupling (Barbara M. Hickey)
· Intrusions of water from the Columbia River plume frequently dominate physical characteristics in spring and early summer in Washington coastal estuaries and plays an important role in determining characteristics of the nearshore coastal environment off both Washington and Oregon in spring and summer.

Seabirds as Nearshore Indicators (Julia K. Parrish)
· Nearshore ecosystems have rebounded from the 1997-98 El Niño event as evidenced by continually increasing seabird abundance and productivity.
· Seabirds consume a diverse array of forage fishes, including commercially important species such as anchovy, Pacific herring, eulachon, as well as Pacific salmon. Along the entire Pacific coast, seabirds consume more fish than commercial fishers take.

Ecosystem Modeling (Elizabeth A. Logerwell)
· Models suggest that Coho salmon survival depends on average upwelling, sea surface temperature, coastal sea level, Columbia River flow, winter winds, and "event-scale" processes.

Salmon Survival: Natural and Anthropogenic Impacts (Ray Hilborn, Arni Magnusson)
· More than half of the spatial variability of Coho salmon survival rates can be explained with estuary size, whereas Chinook salmon survival rates show little if any relationship with estuary size.
· Survival rates of Coho released in 1995 correspond relatively well with plankton data from that year's acoustic survey off the Washington and Oregon coasts.

Larval Transport and Recruitment (Curtis Roegner, Alan Shanks, David Armstrong)
· Coastal upwelling-derived chlorophyll is transported to estuarine systems by variations in wind stress and tidal advection.
· Megalopae crab larvae recruit in distinct pulses into all the estuaries studied by PNCERS.

Bioindicators in Coastal Estuaries: Dungeness Crab and English Sole (David Armstrong, Donald Gunderson, Chris Rooper, Curtis Roegner, Jennifer Reusink, Brett Dumbauld)
· Densities of age 0+ Dungeness crab in Grays Harbor and Willapa Bay were much higher during the El Niño year 1998, compared to 1999 and 2000.
· English sole densities have been higher in Oregon estuaries than Washington estuaries during the last two field seasons.

Oysters as Integrators (Jennifer L. Ruesink, Curtis Roegner)
· Growth rates of Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas) in different locations in Willapa Bay varied by more than 50%.
· The growth rates of oysters appear to be most strongly influenced by tidal elevation and on- versus off-bottom culture.

Factors Forcing Spatial and Annual Variations in Vegetated Habitat Characteristics (Ronald Thom, Steve Rumrill, Amy Borde, Dana Woodruff, John Southard, Greg Williams)
· Eelgrass flowering has increased in Willapa Bay every year for the past three years and was higher in Coos Bay the last 2 years.
· Eelgrass productivity is not nutrient limited in either Willapa Bay or Coos Bay.

Public Perceptions, Attitudes, and Values (Rebecca Johnson, Kathleen Bell, Daniel Huppert)
· The majority of residents in coastal communities within the PNCERS study area are full-time, long-term residents.
· In all five estuaries, more than twenty percent of respondents indicated that changes in community characteristics were causing them to consider moving away from their current community.
· Across all five estuaries, residents thought the greatest threats to the local estuarine environments are: decline in fish habitat, shoreline development/shoreline erosion, oil spills, spread of invasive green crabs, and logging in upland areas.